INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH · CANADA
Research on Canadian mid-cap industrials.
Fundamental, buy-side style research on TSX companies below the S&P/TSX 60, where analyst coverage is thinnest. Every report starts from the annual report and its notes and ends with a rating, a 12-month target and the facts that would prove it wrong.
First initiation
Initiation 001: a TSX-listed industrial
A full initiation report with a three-statement model, bull, base and bear cases, and a 12-month rating and target. The company is announced on publication.
- Format
- 5 to 10 pages + model
- Valuation
- DCF and comparables
- Rating
- Buy, Hold or Sell
- Follow-up
- Quarterly earnings notes
Three habits behind every report
Read the notes, not the headlines
The story is in the notes to the financial statements and the MD&A: revenue recognition, working capital, leases, debt terms and one-off items.
Model the drivers
Forecasts are built from what actually moves the business, such as backlog, volumes, pricing and margins, in a linked three-statement model.
Say what would prove it wrong
Each thesis lists specific, measurable conditions that would end it, written before the stock moves and checked every quarter.
Every call is tracked in public
Buy ratings enter a paper portfolio at the closing price on the day of publication and are measured against the S&P/TSX Completion Index. Nothing is deleted.
Reports and earnings notes
Initiation reports run 5 to 10 pages with a linked model. An earnings note follows each quarterly report and call, and says whether the thesis still holds.
| Date | Title | Type | Rating | Target |
|---|
Coverage list
Up to five TSX-listed industrials outside the S&P/TSX 60, chosen for clear revenue drivers and enough disclosure to model properly. A company joins the list when its initiation report is published.
| Company | Ticker | Sub-industry | Rating | Price | Target | Upside |
|---|
Performance against the benchmark
A hypothetical portfolio of every Buy rating. No real money is invested. Returns include dividends and are compared with the S&P/TSX Completion Index.
Positions
| Ticker | Entry date | Entry | Last | Weight | Total return | vs index |
|---|
Portfolio rules
How each company is researched
The same seven steps for every company, from the first screen to the last earnings call.
Screen
TSX industrials outside the S&P/TSX 60, liquid enough to trade, with at least five years of filings.
Read the filings
Annual report, MD&A, notes to the financial statements, Annual Information Form and management proxy circular, from SEDAR+.
Understand the industry
Customers, competitors, demand drivers and where the company has pricing power.
Model
A three-statement model built from the company's own drivers, with five years of history and three of forecasts.
Value
DCF and trading comparables, cross-checked with precedent transactions, under bull, base and bear cases.
Decide
Thesis, catalysts, risks, a rating and a 12-month target, and the conditions that would make the thesis wrong.
Monitor
Earnings calls and quarterly results update the model, the rating and the paper portfolio.
Rating scale
Ratings are set by expected 12-month total return: price change plus dividends.
What every report contains
- RecommendationRating, target and the main reason, in one paragraph
- The businessWhat it sells, to whom, and how it makes money
- ThesisThree points the market is missing, with evidence
- Industry and positionDemand drivers, competitors, pricing power
- ForecastThe drivers that move earnings, against consensus
- ValuationDCF, comparables and precedents as a range
- Bull, base and bearValue in each case and the probability-weighted target
- CatalystsDated events within 12 months
- RisksRanked by likelihood and impact
- What would make me wrongMeasurable conditions, written in advance
- ESGOnly issues that could affect value
- Sources and modelFilings used, model link and any position held
About the analyst
Ali Maftoumi is a finance professional based in Montréal with a background in fund operations, financial analysis and data automation. He holds a Master's in Finance and has passed Level I of the CFA Program.
MAFTOUMI Research is his independent record of how he analyzes companies and what he concludes. It is published openly so that the reasoning, and the results, can be checked.
- Based in
- Montréal, Québec
- Focus
- Canadian mid-cap industrials
- Languages
- English, French, Arabic
- Contact
- Connect on LinkedIn